Free PDF The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Nate Silver
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Nate Silver
Free PDF The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Nate Silver
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Pressestimmen
Outstanding... I was hooked (Tim Harford Financial Times)One of the more momentous books of the decade (The New York Times Book Review)A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically (Guardian)The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-reading The Signal and the Noise... They will find the book remarkable and rewarding (Sunday Telegraph)Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe? (Jonathan Freedland)Fascinating... our age's Brunel (Bryan Appleyard Sunday Times)A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability (Daily Telegraph)The Galileo of number crunchers (Independent)A 34-year old Delphic Oracle (Daily Beast)
Über den Autor und weitere Mitwirkende
Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times. In 2012, he correctly predicted the outcome of 50 out of 50 states during the US presidential election, trumping the professional pollsters and pundits. He was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world, and one of Rolling Stones' top Agents of Change. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
Produktinformation
Taschenbuch: 544 Seiten
Verlag: Penguin; Auflage: 01 (18. April 2013)
Sprache: Englisch
ISBN-10: 0141975652
ISBN-13: 978-0141975658
Größe und/oder Gewicht:
12,9 x 2,3 x 19,8 cm
Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung:
3.7 von 5 Sternen
18 Kundenrezensionen
Amazon Bestseller-Rang:
Nr. 4.618 in Fremdsprachige Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Fremdsprachige Bücher)
Mit der Überzeugung, hier wieder ein wissenschaftliches Buch gefunden zu haben, das dem nur mit mässigen Vorkenntnissen ausgestatteten Leser das Fachthema einfach begreiflich macht, ihn bestenfalls sogar fasziniert, habe ich dieses Buch gekauft. In den ersten Kapiteln gelingt das dem Autor auch, dann folgen jedoch einige Abschnitte, die nach meinem Geschmack zu sehr ins Detail gehen und die Vorhersagen des Ausgangs politischer Wahlen in den USA ins Zentrum stellen. Ein Paar Seiten dazu - ok, aber müssen es gleich ganze Kapitel sein...?
Der Autor bescheibt anhand von Ereignisse oder öffentlich diskutierten Forschungsfelder der letzten Jahre die nur zu menschlichen Fallstricke bei der Auswertung und Prognose von Daten bzw. Ereignissen.Insgesamt: Sehr interessant. In Passagen in denen ich Vorkenntnisse hatte werden die Dinge aus einem neuen Blickwickel erleuchtet. Manchmal etwas langatmig.
Das Buch ist für alle, die nicht vertraut mit statistischen Methoden sind, ein Muß!Es zeigt, die Problematik auf, die bei statistischen Ausagen auftreten.Mathematische Vorausseetzungen, die zum Verständnis des Buches notwendig wären, bestehen nicht.
From the title i assumed it would cover cases and discuss in a rather scientific way. But it's based on more personal experiences of the author
great in general, great in detail, great in writing, great book. Silver shows on different topics where our predictions are already good and where to improve. I wish the world were as simple as baseball.
Interesting for anyone who wants to better understand science, politics and how we can learn to better interpret data and make more correct predictions about the future. I enjoyed reading it.
Anhand äußerst unterschiedlicher Beispiele (Wirtschaftskrisen, Terrorismus, Vulkanausbrüche, Baseball) erklärt der Verfasser, warum es so schwierig ist, mit Hilfe von statistischen Daten Vorhersagen zu machen und wie man mit einigen einfachen Regeln die allerschlimmsten Fallstricke vermeiden kann. Ein wirklicher Augenöffner!
Kurzweilig zu lesen für Interessierte, Studierende oder Berufspraktiker aber bleibt sehr an der Oberfläche. Grundsätzliches Interesse vorausgesetzt, eine Einstiegsliteratur in die Thematik.
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